Uncertainty in Marine Invasion Science

Uncertainty can be considered as an attribute of (or reciprocally lack of) information (Zadeh, 2005). Nevertheless, this vital attribute is usually missing from marine invasion science studies (Figure 1), despite the fact that methods such as Monte Carlo simulations, sensitivity analysis, Bayesian uncertainty assessment, and Latin hypercube sampling appear more frequently in the ecological literature (e.g., Harwood and Stokes, 2003; Moustakas and Evans, 2015; Aiello-Lammens and Akçakaya, 2017). Most studies of marine invasions are plagued by uncertainties, which in most cases are totally ignored or if acknowledged are not properly addressed or quantified. Herein we provide some examples of uncertainties in invasion science, aiming to highlight the existing gaps and stress the need for the development and implementation of frameworks, methods and tools that will assist invasion biologists to adequately tackle uncertainty.